For Texas school districts

Predict absences.
Protect your ADA funding.

Absentry forecasts which students will go chronically absent — and the ADA dollars at stake — before the year is lost. Built on PEIMS data. Calibrated to the Texas 19% statewide baseline.

Pre-loaded with a sample district of 250 students. No signup required.
$6,160
FSP basic allotment per ADA student (2025–26)
$35.20
Per-day ADA value at stake for every absence
19%
Texas statewide chronic absenteeism baseline
175
Instructional days. Every one counts.
How it works

Two outputs your team can act on today.

No black box. Every prediction comes with the drivers behind it, the confidence behind it, and the intervention to take next.

01

Year-end absence rate forecast

For every student, a projected end-of-year attendance rate with an 80% confidence band. Time-aware: the model weights early-year signals differently from spring trends.

02

Chronic-risk probability

A logistic classifier outputs the probability that each student will cross the 10% threshold by year-end. Risk tiers — On Track, Watch, At Risk, Critical — flow directly into your intervention queue.

03

Driver-level explainability

Every student gets a primary driver, supporting factors, protective factors, and a recommended next step routed to the right owner — counselor, nurse, 504 coordinator, or attendance team.

Data & trust

Your district's data stays your district's data.

Built FERPA-aligned from day one. No PHI is ever collected. Demographic factors are intentionally de-emphasized in scoring to reduce ADA Title II and bias risk.

  • District-scoped tenancy. Your data is isolated by district at the database layer.
  • Published methodology. The full algorithm white paper is available to every district.
  • Research-grounded. Built on findings from Allensworth (Chicago), Balfanz (Johns Hopkins), Attendance Works, and TEA 2023.
  • No PHI. Medical patterns are flagged descriptively for routing to nurse or 504 coordinator — never predictively.
Algorithm methodology
v2.0 — Published openly
  • Prior attendance35%
  • Current-year trend30%
  • Course performance20%
  • Behavioral indicators10%
  • Risk context5%
Pilot program

See your own district's risk picture.

Bring your PEIMS exports. We'll show you which students need attention this month — and how much ADA is on the table — before you commit to anything.

Demo: demo@absentry.org · AbsentryDemo2026